Your hedge assumes a normal year. The climate no longer delivers one.
Wind droughts, hail, heat and storms already move production, damage and cost. This model shows, peril by peril and month by month, how much your wind and solar assets are likely to produce, what they could lose, and what that means for your contracts, your hedges, your maintenance budget and your insurance.
Four ways a single season can break the budget.
The short year
You sold P50 volumes forward. A wind drought delivers P90. The missing megawatt-hours are bought back at spot, often exactly when prices are highest, and imbalance costs come on top.
Hits: producers · asset managersThe hail night
One storm cracks thousands of PV modules. Repair takes weeks, output stops, and the business-interruption cover turns out to have a deductible larger than the loss.
Hits: owners · insurersThe quiet failure
Fatigue, corrosion and heat stress age blades and inverters faster than the depreciation plan. Replacement capex arrives years early, unplanned, and outside the treasury forecast.
Hits: treasury · O&MThe wrong cover
Premiums are paid for perils that barely matter, while the peril that drives most of the loss is retained without anyone having decided to retain it.
Hits: producers · asset managers · insurersKnow it before the market does.
- I
Climate scenarios
Ensemble projections for 2030, 2035, 2040 and 2050.
Resource, temperature and storm shocks - II
Weather at the site
Wind speed, irradiance, temperature and precipitation per asset location.
Resource index · stress indices - III
Peril signals
Hail, extreme wind and storm, flood, heat and low-resource years, each with its own probability.
Bayesian event probabilities - IV
Production, damage & cost
P50 / P90 / P99 production, damage ratios, property and BI loss.
MWh · damage ratio · expected loss - V
Decisions
Commit & hedgeContract volumes on P90 and ladder hedges by tenor.
Maintain & planSchedule maintenance in low-yield, low-peril months.
Prepare for insuranceKnow which perils drive your expected losses.
Probabilities, not point estimates.
- Bayesian updatingPrior event probabilities updated with observed events, with credible ranges.
- Weighting modelsPeril and stress signals combined into composite risk scores and generation adjustments.
- Stochastic calculus & Brownian motionSimulated price and resource paths instead of a single forecast.
- GARCH volatilityTime-varying price volatility with a climate uplift.
- Monte Carlo simulationScenario distributions for production, revenue and loss.
- Probabilistic forecastingP10 to P99 production paths for 2030, 2035, 2040 and 2050.
The weather doesn’t send an invoice. It just takes the money.
Solar PV
Dust and sandstorms that blind a plant in hours and scour the glass. Snow that buries the panels, and snow load that bends the racking. Ice and freezing rain on modules and electrics, with crews unable to work safely. Heavy rain that finds its way into connectors and junction boxes. A single lightning strike that takes out an inverter, the SCADA and a transformer. Daily temperature swings that quietly break solder joints. Fog and cloud that keep output below forecast for days. Wildfire smoke that dims the sun and coats the glass in ash, and the fire itself.
Wind
Lightning that punctures and delaminates a blade. Ice that changes the blade profile, throws the rotor out of balance, or flies off it and closes the site. Turbulence that eats into component life load cycle by load cycle. Rain, hail and sand that erode leading edges season after season. Cold that stops turbines from starting; heat that derates gearboxes and converters. Snowstorms that block access just when a repair is due. Offshore: salt spray that corrodes, waves that keep vessels in port, storm surge at the substation.
Every one of these is a capital loss, an operational loss, or both. Five of them I quantify today, site by site.
You can’t stop the weather.
You can know what it will cost you.
Five perils, quantified per asset.
Hail
Solar modules and wind blades.
- Hail probability
- Damage ratio
- Property loss, €
- Business-interruption days and loss
Extreme wind & storm
Cut-out shutdowns and storm damage.
- Shutdown risk score
- Lost MWh
- Damage ratio and property loss
- Storm shock by climate horizon
Flood
Sites, inverters, substations, access.
- Flood stress index
- Downtime days
- Damage ratio and property loss
Heat
PV efficiency and equipment derating.
- Heat stress index
- Efficiency and derating loss
- Generation loss, MWh
Low-resource years
Wind droughts and low-irradiance years.
- P50 / P90 / P99 production
- Shortfall vs committed volume
- Capture price and revenue loss
Across all five
Combined into one view per asset and portfolio.
- Climate-adjusted generation and production loss
- Combined damage ratio, expected gross and net loss
- Climate-adjusted DSCR
- 2030 / 2035 / 2040 / 2050 horizons
One model, four decisions.
Commit the right volume
See how much you can reliably deliver each month. Base PPA and forward volumes on P90 instead of hope, and reduce your exposure to shortfall and imbalance costs as the climate shifts.
- Monthly P50 / P90 / P99
- Shortfall vs committed volume
- Capture price and capture ratio
Ladder your hedges
Hedge in layers: a high share of P90 near term, less further out, updated as climate signals and peril probabilities change. Know what stays open and what it can cost.
- Hedge ladder by tenor
- Earnings-at-Risk and CVaR
- Revenue loss and climate-adjusted DSCR
Budget replacements, plan operations
Wind: maintenance moves into low-wind, low-peril months, and indicative component life based on average degradation rates helps treasury plan replacement budgets. Solar: heat and drought signals size cleaning and water contracts.
- Maintenance windows by month
- Indicative component life (average rates)
- Cleaning and water demand by month
Do you really need that cover?
For owners: go into your insurance renewal with numbers: which perils drive your expected losses, and whether your current cover addresses them. For insurers: a peril-by-peril view of expected loss on renewable assets, as input to your own underwriting.
- Expected loss per peril
- Share of total expected loss
- Capital vs operational loss split
From climate drivers to financial impact.
Climate drivers
- Resource index (wind and solar)
- Resource, temperature and storm shocks for 2030, 2035, 2040, 2050
- Posterior event probability with credible range (Bayesian updating)
Meteorological stress
- Heat stress index
- Flood stress index
- Extreme-wind flag and shutdown risk score
- Generation adjustment %
Production & financial impact
- Baseline vs climate-adjusted generation, MWh
- Total climate adjustment % and production loss
- P50 / P90 / P99 production paths
- Capture ratio and capture price
- Revenue loss and climate-adjusted DSCR
Investors & lenders
Stress-test the long-term revenue of renewable energy portfolios.
Developers & operators
Inform site selection and long-term yield expectations.
Risk & disclosure
Feed physical risk analysis and climate scenario reporting.
What you see every month.
Illustrative portfolio: 120 MW onshore wind and 80 MW solar PV in Germany. All figures are example data, not client results.
Monthly production distribution
P50 P50–P90 range P99Peril intensity by month
0 highHedge ladder
Indicative hedge volume Open up to P50 P90Hedge ratios here are example settings: a higher share of P90 near term, lower further out. In practice they follow your risk appetite.
Operations calendar
Suggested maintenance window Cleaning & water demandComponent condition indicative, average degradation rates
Where your expected losses come from
Per peril, per yearUse this as input for your insurer or broker: which perils drive your expected losses, and whether your current cover addresses them.
Two models, built end to end.
Energy & Climate Risk Model
24 linked worksheets: asset and location data, atmospheric observations, climate features, Bayesian event probabilities, probabilistic production, capture shaping, climate-adjusted forward curves, GARCH-style price scenarios, damage functions with property and BI loss, insurance technical pricing and reinsurance.
- P50 / P90 / P99 production and production loss
- Damage ratios, property and BI loss
- Expected loss and business-interruption loss
Energy Trading & Flexibility Risk Model
Power prices, wind and solar generation, demand, battery storage and charging, linked to market, volume, capture-price, imbalance and counterparty risk. Student-t GARCH volatility, P10/P50/P90 forecasts, indicative hedge ratios, Earnings-at-Risk, Monte Carlo, named stress scenarios such as Dunkelflaute, and VaR backtesting.
- 95% / 99% VaR, CVaR and EaR
- Capture discount and imbalance cost
- Hedge ratio checked against risk-appetite limits
Both models use illustrative data. They show methodology and implementation, not client results.
Model outputs support your decisions. They are not insurance, investment or trading advice.
Find out what your assets are exposed to before the next season does.
Send the location, technology and capacity of your assets. I’ll show you which perils matter for your sites, what your production distribution looks like, and where weather risk is not yet reflected in your contracts, hedges or maintenance planning.